Nonparametric estimation of matching efficiency and elasticity in a marriage agency platform: 2014–2025
利用日本最大结构化婚姻平台IBJ的月度数据，用非参数方法估计匹配函数，发现2014至2025年间匹配效率增长三倍，弹性分化表明市场响应日益不对称，揭示数字中介如何重塑伴侣搜索。
This paper examines monthly matching efficiency in the Japanese marriage market using novel data from IBJ, the country’s largest structured matching platform. Unlike administrative or dating app data, IBJ provides full search, dating, and matching logs based on verified profiles and confirmed engagements. Users are highly selected into serious marriage search via costly screening. Covering 3.3% of national marriages annually, I estimate time-varying matching functions using a nonparametric approach. Matching efficiency triples between 2014 and 2025, with diverging elasticities indicating increasingly asymmetric responsiveness. Results show how digital intermediation reshapes partner search in modern marriage markets.