The Economic Effects of ‘Excessive’ Financial Deepening
研究过去七十年跨国面板数据，发现极高水平的金融发展并不会导致长期经济增长放缓或增加银行危机风险，与现有文献结论相反。
ABSTRACT We study the causal implications of high levels of financial deepening for economic development and banking crises in a panel of countries over the past seven decades. We adopt a factor‐augmented heterogeneous difference‐in‐differences estimator and find, in contrast to the existing literature, that very high levels of financial development do not lead to lower long‐term economic growth or a higher likelihood of banking crises associated with ‘credit booms gone bust’ cycles or excessive capital inflows. We submit this null result to a battery of robustness checks adopting alternative specifications, alternative aggregate data for households vs. firms, and carrying out theory‐driven heterogeneity analysis.