The role of data and priors in estimating climate sensitivity
本文提出一种反向贝叶斯方法，利用观测数据和后验信息反推不可观测的先验分布，并应用于IPCC报告的气候敏感性估计，以揭示科学家们的先验信念。
Abstract In Bayesian theory, the data together with the prior produce a posterior. We show that it is also possible to follow the opposite route, that is, to use data and posterior information (both of which are observable) to reveal the prior (which is not observable). We then apply the theory to equilibrium climate sensitivity as reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in an attempt to get some insights into the prior beliefs of the IPCC scientists.