Speculative and Informative: Lessons from Market Reactions to Speculation Cues
研究发现公司年报中的投机性语言能传递正面私有信息，预测超额收益、内幕买入和新闻情绪，对投资者和监管者理解披露策略有参考价值。
Abstract Speculative language in corporate disclosures can convey valuable information about firms’ fundamentals. We evaluate this idea by developing a measure for speculative statements based on sentences marked with the “weasel tag” on Wikipedia. In the 16-week test period after filing, greater use of speculative statements in 10-Ks predicts higher and nonreverting abnormal returns, more insider and informed buying, and higher news sentiment. These findings imply that managers’ usage of speculative language in 10-Ks reflects voluntary disclosure of their private information about the positive prospects of events when market implications of the events are uncertain and thus have room for (re)interpretation.