Unintended Consequences of Anti-Money-Laundering Regulations
研究发现，离岸金融中心加强反洗钱监管可能意外地促使洗钱活动转向美国本土，表现为高风险行业企业数量增加、雇佣减少、收入虚增以及现金交易和房地产估值不当增多。
Abstract Tighter money-laundering regulations in offshore financial havens may inadvertently spur incentives to launder money domestically. Our study exploits regulations targeting financially based money laundering in Caribbean jurisdictions to examine their impact on the creation of front companies and other money-laundering practices in US counties. Predictions on the effects are ambiguous: stricter regulations could either increase domestic money laundering through substitution or decrease it by disrupting laundering networks. We find strong evidence of substitution. Counties with prior financial exposure to these jurisdictions experience a rise in business activities after regulatory tightening. The effect is greater in sectors at high risk of money laundering, while firms hire fewer workers and inflate revenues. Exposed counties also see higher shares of cash-based and misvalued real-estate transactions. Our work provides the first indirect evidence of real and financial unintended effects of foreign money-laundering regulations.