美元主导地位与货币政策的传导

Dollar Dominance and the Transmission of Monetary Policy

Quarterly Journal of Economics · 2025
被引 1
人大 A+FT50ABS 4*

中文导读

质疑美元主导使货币政策失效的观点,发现美元计价商品价格更灵活,货币贬值仍能促进出口,低汇率传递并非价格粘性的证据。

Abstract

Abstract Has the dominance of the dollar in global trade rendered monetary policy ineffective? An emerging view contends that if a country invoices its exports in dollars, exchange rates cannot stabilize economic activity, as the classical expenditure-switching channel is muted. This view rests on the premise that export prices are sticky in dollars, breaking the link between export demand and depreciations. But this assumption is not borne out by the data: goods priced in dollars tend to have more flexible prices, along with higher elasticities of substitution. We propose a model with more realistic assumptions and show that even with dollar pricing, depreciating the currency by loosening monetary policy can still boost exports and activity materially. The limit to any expansion is not demand, but supply capacity. We also show that low exchange rate pass-through to dollar prices is not informative about price stickiness. The price response to exchange rates is small when demand elasticities are high, even with flexible prices: low pass-through is an equilibrium result, not evidence of a nominal friction.

美元主导货币政策传导汇率传递价格粘性