The coal phase-out in Germany and Central Western Europe under new framework conditions
研究通过电力市场模型分析2030年中欧西部市场驱动的煤电退出，发现可再生能源扩张减少化石燃料电厂容量，德国2030年强制退出煤电对市场影响有限。
Emission reduction targets require a transformation of the European electricity system. In particular, emission-intensive conventional power plants have to be phased out. How far the transformation can succeed already by 2030 remains unclear and depends on multiple framework conditions. To shed light on this in some detail, we analyze the market-driven coal phase-out in Central Western Europe and the role of gas-fired power plants as well as electrolysis and battery capacity in the year 2030 in an electricity market model. Our model approach allows endogenous decisions on investment and decommissioning for fossil power plants, electrolysis capacity and batteries according to short-term market results with decisions on generation levels, short- and long-term storage operation and hydrogen production. We consider various scenarios with regard to CO 2 prices and the expected increase of electricity demand in Europe with a focus on Germany, for which a regulatory forced coal phase-out as early as 2030 is also considered. The results illustrate how the expansion of renewable energy sources reduces the capacity of fossil power plants needed in 2030 and, depending on the assumptions regarding electricity demand and the emission price, investments in gas-fired power plants and battery capacity lead to additional decommissioning of coal-fired power plants. National plans for the phase-out of coal-fired power generation as early as 2030 in Germany lead to some cross-border effects in capacity, but production levels and market prices are not significantly affected. • The market-driven coal phase-out is almost completed by 2030. • Renewables and batteries reduce capacity of fossil-fired power plants. • New gas-fired power plants required, electrolysis capacity below targets. • German coal Exit by 2030 increases new investments and has limited market effects.