Heterogeneous price responses to trade policy uncertainty: Evidence from income-specific CPIs
利用收入特定CPI数据，发现贸易政策不确定性冲击对高收入家庭价格的影响大于低收入家庭，表明不确定性引发的需求效应在低收入家庭中更显著。
This paper examines the heterogeneous effects of trade policy uncertainty (TPU) on consumer prices across the income distribution. Using income-specific CPI data and a TPU shock measure derived from monthly tariff rates, I estimate impulse responses via local projections. The results show that prices faced by top-income households rise more strongly in response to TPU shocks than those faced by low-income households. These findings suggest that uncertainty-induced demand effect is more pronounced among low-income households, highlighting the importance of accounting for heterogeneity when assessing the macroeconomic implications of TPU.