Empowering energy security: The impact of geopolitical risks on green total factor energy efficiency
研究了1998至2022年间43个国家的地缘政治风险如何通过绿色全要素能源效率指数影响能源安全，发现风险反而提升效率，尤其在中低收入发展中国家更显著。
Geopolitical risks (GPR) have long posed significant challenges to global energy security and environmental sustainability. This paper investigates a critical dimension of energy security by constructing a Green Total Factor Energy Efficiency (GTFEE) index, derived from the super-efficiency SBM model, to examine the impact of geopolitical risk on energy efficiency across 43 countries from 1998 to 2022. Employing instrumental variable quantile regression, the results show a positive relationship between GPR and GTFEE, with the effect becoming stronger at higher GTFEE quantiles. This impact is more pronounced in developing economies with mid-to-low income levels than in high-income developed nations. Furthermore, using a regression discontinuity design, the study finds that events such as military conflicts, international tensions, and Public Health Emergencies of International Concern (PHEIC) significantly increase GTFEE. Complementary analysis based on the World Energy Trilemma Index further indicates that geopolitical risks enhance energy security and environmental sustainability. These findings provide policymakers and practitioners with empirical insights to optimize energy management strategies, strengthen resilience against geopolitical uncertainties, and promote sustainable energy practices on a global scale.