House price dynamics and mortgage defaults: the role of recourse
研究了美国追索权与非追索权都市区房价与抵押贷款违约的关系,发现非追索权市场中房价冲击对违约影响更强,且违约对房价的反作用也更大,对家庭、贷款机构、政策制定者和监管者有启示。
This paper investigates the relationship between house prices and mortgage defaults in recourse and non-recourse US metropolitan areas. The theoretical analysis shows that shocks to house price returns have a stronger effect on defaults in non-recourse markets than in recourse markets due to strategic default behaviour. Empirical evidence from a panel vector autoregressive (Panel VAR) model supports this prediction and, in addition, reveals a stronger house price response to defaults in non-recourse markets than predicted by the theoretical model. The findings highlight key differences in mortgage default dynamics across recourse and non-recourse markets, offering insights for households, lenders, policymakers and regulators.