Dynamics of Deterrence: A Macroeconomic Perspective on Punitive Justice Policy
研究惩罚性监禁改革对犯罪、不平等和劳动力市场的动态影响，发现个人过去的选择会限制其对政策变化的反应，模型预测显示犯罪和监禁的动态变化在财产犯罪和暴力犯罪上存在差异，并伴随不平等加剧和就业下降。
ABSTRACT We argue that transitional dynamics play a critical role in evaluating the effects of punitive incarceration reform on crime, inequality, and labor markets. Individuals' past choices regarding crime and employment under previous policies have persistent consequences that limit their responsiveness to policy changes. A quantitative model of this theory, calibrated using administrative data, predicts nuanced dynamics of crime and incarceration that are distinct across property and violent crime and similar to the US experience after 1980. Increased inequality and declining employment accompany these changes, with unequal impacts across generations.