Expectations-based reference-dependence and labor supply: Eliciting cabdrivers’ expectations in the field
通过上海出租车司机的实地实验，发现期望（尤其是工时期望）显著影响劳动供给，且工时期望比收入期望作用更强，为参照依赖模型提供了新证据。
This paper reports a field experiment on Shanghai cabdrivers’ labor supply, analyzing the data using an expectations-based reference-dependent model that allows daily income- and hours-targeting. Our main innovation is to elicit the cabdrivers’ income and hours expectations, twice a day. We find that expectations indeed affect labor supply in a way predicted by a reference-dependent model, and hours expectations have a stronger influence than income expectations. Both expectations are found to be correlated with their most recent historical average values. While income expectations do adjust within the day, hours expectations are sticky. The findings suggest that the targeting effect based on hours expectations plays a more important role than traditionally thought.