Taxes Today, Benefits Tomorrow
研究部分失业工人是否因看重未来福利而在失业保险金递减的断点处聚集，通过动态断点公式和准实验验证税收与福利的强关联。
This paper tests whether partially unemployed workers value future preserved benefits when they bunch at the kink of the unemployment insurance benefit-withdrawal schedule. I extend the bunching formula of Saez (2010) to a dynamic setting that accounts for the value of future benefits tied to taxation. This yields new tests of tax-benefit linkage based on bunching heterogeneity. I verify in quasi-experiments that UI extension programs that decrease the value of future preserved benefits lead to more bunching and to lower labor supply. Last, a quantification exercise of the dynamic bunching formula provides extra support for a strong tax-benefit linkage.