Price formation in a highly-renewable, sector-coupled energy system
研究了高比例可再生能源和电气化需求下，电力批发市场价格形成从化石燃料主导转向储能和需求管理机会成本主导的过渡，并分析了德国气候中和能源系统的价格动态。
As variable renewable energy increases and more demand is electrified, we expect price formation in wholesale electricity markets to transition from being dominated by fossil fuel generators to being dominated by the opportunity costs of storage and demand management. In order to analyse this transition, we introduce a new method to investigate price formation based on a mapping from the dual variables of the energy system optimisation problem to the bids and asks of electricity suppliers and consumers. This allows us to build the full supply and demand curves in each hour. We use this method to analyse price formation in a sector-coupled, climate-neutral energy system model for Germany, PyPSA-DE, with high temporal resolution and myopic foresight in 5-year steps from 2020 until full decarbonisation in 2045. We find a clear transition from distinct price levels, corresponding to fossil fuels, to a smoother price curve set by variable renewable energy sources, batteries and electrolysis. Despite higher price volatility, the fully decarbonised system clears with non-zero prices in 75% of all hours. Our results suggest that flexibility and cross-sectoral demand bidding play a vital role in stabilising electricity prices in a climate-neutral future. These findings are highly relevant for guiding investment decisions and informing policy, particularly in support of dynamic pricing, the expansion of energy storage across multiple timescales, and the coordinated development of renewable and flexibility technologies. • Novel mapping of dual variables to bidding curves reveals market clearing dynamics. • Fossil-dominated price setting transitions to opportunity costs of storage and demand in decarbonized system. • Price duration curves evolve from stable price levels to less dominant price levels and smoother transitions. • Flexibility technologies and cross-sectoral demand bidding stabilize electricity prices. • Sector coupling reduces price volatility in climate-neutral energy systems.