The Feminization U in Egypt: Economic Development, Structural Change, and Female Labour Force Decline
研究了埃及过去三十年女性劳动参与率下降是否呈现U型轨迹，发现其与经济发展和结构变化相关，制造业增长对邻近省份有空间溢出效应，并强调了产业政策和育儿支持的重要性。
Female labour force participation (FLFP) has declined in Egypt over the past three decades, despite rapid progress in female education, a phenomenon often referred to as the ‘MENA paradox’. This paper investigates whether this decline is part of a U-shaped trajectory that is associated with economic development and structural change, consistent with the Feminization U hypothesis. The paper leverages a novel provincial dataset spanning 1992–2022, and employs static, dynamic, and spatial regression methods alongside a decomposition analysis. The results reveal four key findings. First, FLFP follows a U-shaped pattern in relation to economic development, marked by a sharp decline followed by a modest recovery. Second, structural change—particularly shifts in agriculture, manufacturing, and white-collar services—is positively associated with FLFP growth. Third, only manufacturing growth exhibits spatial spillover effects on neighbouring provinces’ FLFP. Fourth, up to 2017, most of the change in female employment stemmed from labour movement out of agriculture and into services, and increased concentration of women in services. These findings underscore the potential of targeted sectoral policies to support FLFP growth. Moreover, results of disaggregated age cohorts highlight the importance of maternity and childcare support in boosting women’s labour market participation in Egypt.