ESG News, Future Cash Flows, and Firm Value
研究发现负面ESG新闻导致分析师大幅下调短期和长期盈利预测，且长期影响强于其他负面新闻；下调主要源于预期未来销售下降而非成本上升，预测修正能解释ESG新闻对企业价值的大部分负面影响。
ABSTRACT We investigate the expected consequences of negative environmental, social, and governance (ESG) news on firms' future profits. After learning about negative ESG news, analysts significantly downgrade their forecasts at short and longer horizons. Negative ESG news affects forecasts more strongly at longer horizons than other types of negative corporate news. The negative revisions of earnings forecasts following negative ESG news largely reflect expectations of lower future sales, rather than higher future costs. Quantitatively, forecast revisions can explain most of the negative impacts of ESG news on firm value. Analysts are correct to revise forecasts downward following negative ESG news.