Random Experimentation and Exceptional Outcomes in Entrepreneurship
研究创业中高度不确定性和重尾分布下的随机实验策略，通过建模计算最优实验次数，帮助创业者设计实验以应对运气主导的结果。
This paper explores a new paradigm in entrepreneurship, characterized by random experimentation and exemplified by indie makers and solopreneurs like Pieter Levels and Daniel Vassallo. In contexts where uncertainty is extremely high and outcomes follow a heavy-tailed distribution, entrepreneurship can begin to resemble gambling. In response, indie entrepreneurs adopt deliberate experimentation strategies to manage this randomness based on their understanding of power-law dynamics. This approach emphasizes diversification and uncertainty-hedging value of experimentation over the learning and adaptation value of experimentation, which is emphasized in other theories such as the lean startup. Random experimentation focuses on breadth over depth and accepts that outcomes are often shaped more by chance than by effort. Through the lens of order statistics, we adopt a modeling approach that allows us to calculate a baseline function for the value of experimentation. Entrepreneurs may find this useful in designing their experimentation strategy as it allows them to calculate the optimal number of experiments when the probability distribution of outcomes is known. We showcase the predictive power of our modeling approach by illustrating the ability of our model to predict the frequency of outliers in the real-world context of crowdfunding campaigns.