Fueling inequality: A novel estimate from large-scale reforms
利用伊朗1984-2019年家庭支出数据，估计将燃料补贴转为直接现金转移可使支出基尼系数降低8%，揭示补贴改革对减少不平等的潜力。
Recent estimates suggest that eliminating fossil fuel subsidies could prevent 1.6 million premature deaths annually by reducing air pollution, while also addressing the unequal distribution of resources. How unequal are the benefits of these subsidies? Using Iranian household expenditure data (1984–2019) covering three major subsidy reforms, this study estimates the inequality-reducing impact of replacing fuel subsidies with direct, universal, and unconditional cash transfers. Our robust estimates show that reallocating USD 1 per capita per day from fuel subsidies to direct cash transfers reduces the Gini coefficient of expenditure by 8 %. These findings underscore the redistributive potential of such reforms and their role in fostering more equitable and sustainable policy design.