The Macroeconomic Consequences of Exchange Rate Depreciations
通过比较盯住美元与浮动汇率国家在美元贬值时的经济表现，发现盯住国货币贬值会刺激经济扩张，但净出口下降、利率上升，表明支出转换和国内货币政策并非主因，而国际借贷成本下降才是关键。
Abstract We study the consequences of “regime-induced” exchange rate depreciations by comparing outcomes for peggers versus floaters to the U.S. dollar in response to a dollar depreciation. Pegger currencies depreciate relative to floater currencies and these depreciations are strongly expansionary. The boom is associated with a fall in net exports, and (if anything) an increase in interest rates in the pegger countries. This suggests that expenditure switching and domestic monetary policy are not the main drivers of the boom. We show that a large class of existing models cannot match our estimated responses and develop a model with imperfect financial openness that can. Following a depreciation, uncovered interest parity deviations lower the costs of borrowing from abroad and stimulate the economy, as in the data. The model is consistent with (unconditional) exchange rate disconnect and the Mussa fact, even though exchange rates have large effects on the economy.