Central Bank Communication and House Price Expectations
通过在线调查，研究美国消费者如何根据利率预期调整房价预期，发现沟通利率对平均房价预期影响有限，但结合抵押贷款利率渠道解释后效果显著，且视听沟通比文字沟通更有效。
Abstract We use a series of online surveys to study how US consumers’ house price expectations respond to interest rate expectations. Communication about interest rates has little effect on average house price expectations, since households have heterogeneous beliefs about the relationship between interest rates and house prices. When coupled with an explanation of the mortgage rate channel, communication about interest rates has much larger effects on house price expectations. We also show that audio and visual communication have additional effects on expectations beyond the effects of text-based communications. Consumers’ personal experiences appear to shape their mental models of the housing market and the responsiveness of their house price expectations to interest rate expectations.