Return Migration, Crime, and Conflict in Rural Thailand
利用泰国东北部110个分区2010-2022年的面板数据，研究发现返乡移民显著增加了商业欺诈类冲突，但对财产犯罪和邻里冲突无显著影响，且欺诈效应持续长达九个月。
While return migration’s positive economic effects are well-documented, its impact on crime and conflict remains understudied. We examine return migrant effects on crime and conflict in rural Thailand using panel data from 110 subdistricts across three north-eastern provinces (2010–2022). Employing three-stage least squares with weighted-distance unemployment rates as an instrumental variable, we find significant effects on conflict, specifically business fraud, but no evidence for property crime effects or neighbour conflicts. Business fraud effects increase consistently and persist up to nine months upon return. Our findings suggest that while return migrants contribute to local economies through acquired social, financial, and human capital, positive effects can be severely offset by business fraud without proper reintegration policies.