What Do Policies Value?
提出一种方法，通过分析墨西哥PROGRESA反贫困项目的分配决策，揭示政策实际赋予不同人群的福利权重，发现项目优先考虑某些群体并非因为他们被赋予更高权重，而是因为他们受益更多。
Abstract When a policy prioritizes one person over another, is it because they benefit more, or because they are preferred? This paper develops a method to uncover the values consistent with observed allocation decisions. We estimate how much each person benefits from an intervention, and then reconcile the allocation with (i) the welfare weights assigned to different people; (ii) heterogeneous treatment effects of the intervention; and (iii) weights on different outcomes. We demonstrate this approach by analyzing Mexico’s PROGRESA anti-poverty programme. The analysis reveals that while the programme prioritized certain subgroups—such as indigenous households—the fact that those groups benefited more implies that the programme did not actually assign them a higher welfare weight. We also find evidence that the policy valued outcomes differently from households. The PROGRESA case illustrates how the method makes it possible to audit existing policies, and to design future policies that better align with values.