A Sampling-Based Approach to Emissions Pricing
针对天然气供应链等难以全面测量的排放源，提出随机抽样测量部分设施来估算企业排放量并据此定价的方法，理论证明其效率与全面监测相当，模拟显示气候效益远超测量成本。
Emissions must be quantified in order to be priced. For emission sources that are challenging to measure, such as methane pollution from the natural gas supply chain, random sampling may be employed to reduce measurement costs. This paper develops a novel approach to emissions pricing that involves taking measurements at a randomly selected subset of each firm’s facilities to construct firm-level estimates of emissions. A theoretical model demonstrates that under realistic assumptions, applying an emissions price to these firm-level estimates preserves the efficiency benefits of emissions pricing with comprehensive monitoring. A simulation calibrated to be representative of methane emissions from the U.S. oil and gas industry predicts that this approach can achieve net climate mitigation benefits roughly two orders of magnitude greater than measurement costs.