Droughts, Conflicts, and the Importance of Democratic Legitimacy: Evidence from Pre-Industrial Europe
研究公元900-1800年欧洲城市数据发现，干旱与城市骚乱显著相关，且严重干旱时冲突概率激增；选举产生的市政府能有效抵御干旱引发的冲突，而基于市民或行会代表的政府则不能，表明地方政府的民主合法性对维持经济冲击下的社会稳定至关重要。
This research shows that droughts are robustly associated with city-level unrest in Europe over the years 900 to 1800 ce . This relationship is non-linear, with disproportionately greater increases in the probability of a conflict among droughts in the upper tail of the severity distribution. Elected city governments are relatively immune to drought-induced conflict, while those based on representation by burghers or guilds are not. These results suggest that local governments are key to maintaining social stability during economic shocks, and are most successful when they have a greater degree of democratic legitimacy.