Exploration, Confirmation, and Replication in the Same Observational Study: A Two Team Cross-Screening Approach to Studying the Effect of Unwanted Pregnancy on Mothers’ Later Life Outcomes
提出双团队交叉筛选法，利用威斯康星纵向研究数据，在同一研究中同时进行探索性、确认性分析和复制，研究意外妊娠对母亲后期心理、身体、经济和生活满意度的影响。
The long-term consequences of unwanted pregnancies carried to term on mothers have not been explored much. We use data from the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study (WLS) and propose a novel approach, namely two team cross-screening, to study the possible effects of unwanted pregnancies carried to term on various aspects of mothers’ later life mental health, physical health, economic well-being, and life satisfaction. Our approach, unlike existing approaches to observational studies, enables investigators to perform exploratory data analysis, confirmatory data analysis, and replication in the same study. This is a valuable property when there is only one data set available with unique strengths. In two team cross-screening, the investigators split themselves into two teams and the data is split as well according to a meaningful covariate. Each team then performs an exploratory data analysis on its part of the data to design an analysis plan for the other part of the data. The complete freedom of the teams in designing the analysis has the potential to generate new unanticipated hypotheses in addition to a prefixed set of hypotheses. Moreover, only the hypotheses that looked promising in the data each team explored are forwarded for analysis (thus alleviating the multiple testing problem). These advantages are demonstrated in our study of the effects of unwanted pregnancies on mothers’ later life outcomes.