How importers hedge demand uncertainty through dual sourcing and safety inventory
研究了进口商在进口存在订单前置期时，如何通过安全库存和双源采购来对冲需求不确定性，发现进口成本上升时企业会从安全库存转向双源采购，且库存和进口量下降幅度超过预期销量。
Abstract We develop a dynamic model of inventory and trade to study how an importer may hedge demand uncertainty when importing involves an order lead time. We show that when the import cost is low, the importer optimally holds safety inventory (i.e., inventory of imported goods in excess of expected sales) to deal with demand surges. As the import cost rises, the firm switches from safety inventory to dual sourcing (i.e., to covering demand surges through quickly available but expensive domestic supplies while using imports for base‐level demand). The endogenous adjustment of the hedging strategy implies that the volume of inventory and imports falls by more than expected sales as the import cost rises. This effect is magnified by an increase in demand uncertainty.