Risks to energy efficiency in supply chain resilience: from an emerging economy context
本研究通过文献综述和专家意见识别新兴经济体供应链中影响能源效率的风险，利用贝叶斯信念网络和蒙特卡洛模拟进行情景分析，发现自然事件是最关键的风险，为管理者和从业者提供洞察。
Supply chains, involving multiple stakeholders and complex operations, are vulnerable to disruptions; therefore, ensuring their resilience is crucial. Recently, the concept of an energy-efficient supply chain has gained attention, because it reduces costs and supports social and environmental development. However, many risks arise while improving energy efficiency in supply chains, and it is important to identify these risks, particularly in emerging economies. This study identifies these risks and their interrelations through literature review and expert opinions. By integrating Bayesian Belief Network and Monte Carlo Simulation, scenario analyses are conducted to explore the possible consequences of these risks, and the study finds that natural events are the most critical risks to energy efficiency in supply chain resilience. It contributes to the small body of literature on risks to energy efficiency in supply chain resilience, and innovatively applies scenario analysis to these risks, providing managers and practitioners with valuable insights.