Empirical Literature on Fiscal Multipliers: A Bibliometric Approach, 2002–2023
用文献计量方法分析了2002-2023年间337篇财政乘数实证研究，发现多数文献发表于2020-2023年，VAR模型主导但局部投影法兴起，研究集中于高收入国家，且乘数在经济衰退时更大。
ABSTRACT This paper reviews the empirical literature on fiscal multipliers through a bibliometric approach, analyzing 337 journal articles published between 2002 and 2023. The articles are categorized based on empirical methodologies, fiscal shock identification strategies, geographic focus, exchange rate arrangements, and macro‐financial regime dependencies. Notably, over half of the literature emerged between 2020 and 2023, with the most impactful articles appearing in top‐tier Economics journals—highlighting the growing academic and policy interest in fiscal multipliers. Key findings show the dominance of vector autoregressive (VAR) models, although local projection (LP) techniques are on the rise. Structural and recursive identification strategies lead among VAR, while LP‐based research frequently uses instrumental variables. There is a growing trend in studies estimating regime‐dependent multipliers, particularly across business cycle phases. The literature remains highly concentrated on high‐income countries, and while high‐quality research supports the Keynesian view that spending multipliers are larger during recessions and crises, evidence across other regimes, and on average, suggests multipliers are below one—more aligned with the classical perspective. A broader geographic representation and methodological refinement, while expanding the scope across diverse instruments and regimes, would enhance the robustness of findings regarding the determinants of multiplier size.