Uncertainty, Risk, and Capital Growth
研究发现高生产率宏观经济不确定性反而伴随实物资本积累增加，原因是企业通过降低利用率而非增加投资来实施预防性储蓄，这一机制解释了约四分之一的股权溢价。
Abstract We find that high productivity-based macroeconomic uncertainty is associated with greater accumulation of physical capital despite a reduction in investment and valuations. To reconcile this puzzling evidence, we show that uncertainty predicts lower aggregate depreciation of existing capital, which dominates the investment slowdown. We explain these findings by developing a quantitative production-based model in which firms implement precautionary savings through reducing utilization rather than raising investment. Through this novel intensive-margin mechanism, uncertainty shocks command a quarter of the equity premium in general equilibrium. Flexibility in utilization adjustments also helps explain uncertainty risk exposures in the cross-section of industry returns.