Hard forks, hard questions: Unraveling the microstructure effects on Bitcoin’s return, volume, and volatility
分析了52次比特币硬分叉对回报、交易量和波动性的影响，发现交易量显著变化，而回报和波动性不受影响，为协议变更争议提供参考。
We analyze 52 Bitcoin hard forks using minute-level local projections to assess their impact on Bitcoin’s returns, volume, and volatility following the planned split. Trading volume shows significant effects, while returns and volatility remain unaffected. Our findings suggest that governance splits trigger immediate trading activity, while price and volatility consequences likely emerge over longer horizons. These results remain robust to the omission of major forks. This study provides insights for future debates on controversial protocol changes, such as those concerning quantum resistance and efforts to make Bitcoin more energy efficient.