The Speed of Firm Response to Inflation
利用高频企业调查数据，分析英国企业对月度CPI通胀数据的反应速度，发现企业在数据发布后数小时内调整通胀感知和预期，且媒体关注度越高反应越强；企业关注通胀数据本身而非专业预测的意外值，与金融市场反应模式不同。
Abstract This paper analyses the response of UK firms to monthly CPI inflation releases using high-frequency data from a large business survey. Firms’ inflation perceptions and expectations respond within hours of new inflation data releases. Firm expectations are most responsive when inflation coverage in the media is elevated, suggesting a key role for the media in focusing attention on data releases. Furthermore, firms respond to changes in inflation data, but not to surprises relative to professional forecasts. This highlights a distinction between ‘Wall Street’, where financial markets respond to inflation surprises, and ‘Main Street’, where firms respond to media inflation headlines.