Keeping the Enemies Closer? Exporting Behaviour of Firms Under Conflict
以2016年印度恐怖袭击为准自然实验，利用巴基斯坦企业交易数据，发现袭击后对印出口额、数量和单价增长均低于其他市场，且小企业受影响更大。
This paper uses the terrorist attack in India in 2016 as a quasi-natural experiment to investigate the effect of terrorist activities on exporting behaviour of firms. Using transaction-level international trade data for the universe of exporting firms in Pakistan, we employ a difference-in-differences identification strategy to show that exporters experience a smaller exports value, quantity, and unit value growth in the Indian market after the attack, relative to other countries. Our results shed light on both the intensive and extensive margins of trade, and document heterogeneous responses to the shock across firms, products, and shipping locations. Smaller exporters experienced a larger drop in exports volume and price, while more import-intensive firms, particularly those importing from India, did not witness a decrease in demand. Similarly, the study detects asymmetric responses across products and shipping ports based on proximity to the location of the attack.