The long-term logistical implications and risks from the Russian invasion of Ukraine on global corn trade flows
用蒙特卡洛模拟预测未来十年玉米贸易流，发现若战争持续，巴西市场份额将上升，美国稳定，阿根廷和乌克兰下降；若2025年10月战争结束，乌克兰份额将回升。
Abstract This paper examines the long-term effects on trade from major exporters to key importers. A Monte Carlo simulation combines forecasts for corn trade, energy and shipping costs with the current logistics structure and seasonal dynamics. Random logistical costs are modeled using subject matter expert time–series methods, which calculate optimal monthly trade flows over a 10-year period, from July 2023 to August 2032, to minimize logistics costs. Results indicate that Brazil’s share of the corn market is likely to increase if the war persists, while the US share remains stable. Argentina’s and Ukraine’s shares decline due to throughput constraints on Ukrainian exports. If the war ends in October 2025, Ukraine’s market share is expected to increase.