Pesticide taxation and the adoption of low-input cropping management practices using a hidden Markov model
用隐马尔可夫模型研究农户采纳低投入种植管理实践的决定因素，发现非经济因素对采纳者更重要，而传统农户的决策取决于经济环境和盈利水平，农药减量政策需补偿收入差距才能推动转变。
Abstract Literature indicates that a significant reduction in farmers’ pesticide use requires a change in cropping management practices (CMPs). This article investigates farmers’ decision to adopt low-input CMPs and, particularly, how a standard pesticide reduction policy impacts this decision. We propose a hidden Markov model to uncover farmers’ latent CMP choice, which is considered as an expected return maximizing choice. Our empirical application suggests that, for low-input CMP adopters, non-economic factors outweigh profitability concerns. Whereas for conventional farmers, the CMP choice depends on the economic context and the CMPs profitability level. Hence, pesticide reduction policies could help conventional farmers into less intensive CMPs, provided that they compensate for the revenue gap. This study contributes to the debate on the use of financial incentives to encourage reluctant farmers to adopt sustainable practices.