Group Discussions Improve Competence Calibration: Making Self-Perceived Competence Valuable When Harnessing the Wisdom of Crowds
实验发现，小组讨论能改善个体对自身能力的校准，使基于能力加权的群体判断准确度超过简单平均甚至达到预测市场水平，为低成本利用群体智慧提供了方法。
This paper experimentally demonstrates that group discussions can serve as an instrument to improve competence calibration, which in turn allows getting more wisdom out of the crowd through competence weighting. While the alignment of individuals’ estimation accuracy and self-perceived competence is typically poor and competence-weighted aggregates do not even match the accuracy of simple averaging, we find that preceding group discussions on unrelated judgment problems enhance competence calibration. Consequently, the subsequent performance of competence-weighted aggregation schemes rises to and beyond prediction market levels, suggesting an easy-to-implement approach for effectively exploiting crowd wisdom. This paper was accepted by Manel Baucells, behavioral economics and decision analysis. Supplemental Material: The online appendix and data files are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2022.03061 .