揭示风险决策中的相关性敏感性

Uncovering Correlation Sensitivity in Decision Making Under Risk

International Economic Review · 2025
被引 0
人大 AABS 4

中文导读

通过实验分类被试对彩票结果相关性的敏感性,发现少数人驱动了与后悔理论和显著性理论预测相反的总体模式,而多数人无敏感性。

Abstract

ABSTRACT Allowing risk preferences to depend on the correlation between lottery outcomes can explain behavioral anomalies, while empirical evidence is limited and mixed. Using the framework of correlation sensitivity, we classify preferences into three types and adapt a choice task to categorize subjects. Experiments show that aggregate choices exhibit correlation sensitivity opposite to regret and salience theory predictions. Clustering analysis reveals that a correlation‐sensitive minority drives these patterns, while most subjects display no sensitivity. We further disentangle deliberate within‐state comparisons from incidental payoff comparisons, finding that both contribute to correlation sensitivity, with deliberate comparisons exerting slightly stronger effects.

风险决策相关性敏感性选择任务聚类分析