The Long-Lived Cyclicality of the Labor Force Participation Rate
研究发现美国劳动力参与率对经济周期冲击的反应高度周期性，但恢复时间远长于失业率，约需八年才能完全恢复，且不同人群反应差异显著。
Abstract How cyclical is the U.S. labor force participation rate (LFPR)? We examine exogenous state-level business cycle shocks, finding that the LFPR is highly cyclical, but with significantly longer-lived responses than the unemployment rate. After a negative shock, the LFPR declines for about four years—substantially lagging unemployment—and only fully recovers after about eight years. Our main specifications use age-sex-adjusted LFPR, and we show that using unadjusted LFPR is problematic because local shocks spur changes in the population of high-LFPR age groups. Cyclicality varies across groups, with larger and longer-lived responses among men, younger workers, less-educated workers, and Black workers.