The last shall be first: Innovation as a head-to-head race
研究了创新价值不确定时，领先者和落后者的预期更新方向相反，导致落后企业更可能最终获胜，并探讨了竞赛强度对此效应的影响。
Uncertainty about the value of a contested innovation induces leaders and laggards to update their expectations in opposite directions. We characterize situations in which firms that have obtained an initial advantage are not the most likely to achieve final success. In spite of amplifying a leader’s advantage, greater contest intensity facilitates this effect, challenging the view that laggards require support to remain competitive. • In innovation races, players face uncertainty about the value of innovation. • Belief updating can offset a leader’s technological advantage. • Innovation can become a head-to-head race where laggards are more likely to win. • Rewarding small advances and reducing noise are suitable for head-to-head races. • A policy promoting inexpensive and transparent patenting foster R&D competition.