Disrupting Drug Markets: The Effects of Crackdowns on Rogue Opioid Suppliers
研究打击单个医生对处方阿片类药物需求的影响，发现处方量下降10%，但出现海洛因替代，总体过量死亡率下降，揭示了政策制定者需权衡新用户减少与现有用户转向更危险药物的风险。
This paper estimates the impact of doctor crackdowns on the quantity demanded of prescription opioids, across-market substitution, and across-product substitution. Exploiting plausibly exogenous variation in the timing and location of administrative actions, I find cracking down on a single doctor decreases county-level opioid dispensing by 10 percent. This decline persists across space and grows over time. Additionally, significant heroin substitution occurs, yet overall overdose mortality decreases. These results highlight a critical tradeoff policymakers should consider with targeted crackdowns: Reductions in the flow of new users must be balanced against the harm that arises when existing users substitute to more dangerous drugs.