Does Getting Forecasts Earlier Matter? Evidence from Winter Advisories and Vehicle Crashes
利用美国冬季天气预警和车辆碰撞数据，研究发现提前发布的预警即使准确性较低，也能减少碰撞事故，且边际效益不随提前时间递减，其效果源于个人减少出行和道路维护加强。
Significant investments are directed toward improving the accuracy and early availability of forecasts. However, the value of longer lead times on forecasts is unclear. Using data on winter weather advisories and vehicle crashes in the United States, I show that advisories with longer lead times reduce crashes, even when they are less accurate than advisories with shorter lead times. Further, marginal benefits do not decrease with lead time. The benefits come from individual and institutional responses. When advisories arrive earlier, people visit fewer places, and snowplow crews intensify the road maintenance operations. These results have policy implications for providing effective forecasts.