A novel approach to developing local flood vulnerability scenarios based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways framework: Sectoral risks and policy implications
提出一种将全球共享社会经济路径降尺度到区域洪水风险情景的新方法，以越南顺化市为例，评估健康、农业、交通和水务四个部门在不同路径下的脆弱性变化，为政策制定提供依据。
• A novel method downscales global SSPs to regional flood-risk contexts. • SSP narratives bridge disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation domains. • Socioeconomic trends link with vulnerability data for sector-based planning. • Comparing SSPs shows sustainable policies can reduce flood vulnerability. • The SSP-based vulnerability framework is transferable to other regions. Developing locally tailored vulnerability scenarios is crucial for effective flood risk management, yet existing approaches often lack integration with long-term socioeconomic trajectories. To address this gap, the study introduces an innovative methodology that downscales global Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and integrates them with current vulnerability data to create future vulnerability scenarios for key sectors. This approach is applied to Hue City, Central Vietnam as a case study, focusing on health, agriculture, transport, and water, to illustrate its practical application. The findings indicate that under SSP1, characterized by sustainable growth, socio-economic policies focused on sustainability lead to substantial vulnerability reductions across all sectors. Health systems become more resilient, sustainable agricultural practices minimize economic losses, and improved infrastructure reduces transport disruptions and water contamination risks. SSP2 reflects a continuation of current socio-economic trends, resulting in moderate improvements; however, incremental policy changes and resource constraints leave persistent vulnerabilities. In contrast, SSP3, marked by fragmented and poorly managed growth, exacerbates flood risks, where weak healthcare systems, fragile agricultural practices, inadequate transport infrastructure, and minimal water contamination controls intensify flood-related impacts. This study demonstrates the importance of mainstreaming socioeconomic dynamics into flood risk management and offers a transferable framework for scenario-based planning in diverse regional contexts. Future research should aim to quantify vulnerability trajectories, thereby enhancing resilience planning and supporting data-driven decision-making in flood-prone areas.