The straw that breaks the camel's back: inferential expectations and sudden belief changes
提出推断性预期理论，解释经济中信念的突然转变，通过假设检验机制说明少量反面证据如何引发预期大幅修正，并用三方程宏观模型模拟近期通胀飙升及政策困境。
Abstract We propose a theory of abrupt shifts in beliefs—termed inferential expectations (IE)—to explain significant structural changes observed in economies. According to this theory, agents conduct hypothesis tests on economic fundamentals, holding firmly to their initial beliefs until the weight of contrarian evidence reaches a critical threshold, prompting a sudden and seemingly disproportionate revision of expectations. We explain the intuition behind this theory, refer to its microfoundations, and list examples of possible applications. We also simulate a simple 3-equation macro model to provide qualitative insight into the recent inflation surge and the policy dilemma it presents.