Borrowing and Spending in the Money: Debt Substitution and the Cash-Out Refinance Channel of Monetary Policy
研究发现，抵押贷款利率上升对现金再融资的强烈负面影响，实际上反映了对其他借贷产品的替代，而非家庭新增借贷总额的大幅变化。货币政策的现金再融资渠道较弱且无路径依赖。
We show that the strong negative effect of higher mortgage rates on cash-out refinancing reflects substitution into other borrowing products, not large changes in total new household borrowing. We exploit plausibly exogenous changes in interest rates due to unconventional monetary policy surprises to show that changes in cash-out and other borrowing are roughly offsetting. The elasticity of new household borrowing with respect to mortgage rates is low and varies little with the borrower’s outstanding mortgage rate. Our results suggest that the cash-out refinance channel of unconventional monetary policy is weak and not path dependent.