Logistics planning and cost analysis of green hydrogen refueling stations in Europe
研究分析了欧洲32国320个城市的离网绿色制氢成本，发现2024年平均平准化氢成本约7.5欧元/公斤，到2050年降至4.5欧元/公斤；太阳能比风能更具优势，电池储能可降低氢成本高达18%。
• Levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) is estimated in a pan-European scope. • Spatial and temporal characteristics are used to indicate LCOH trend. • Solar has a better potential than wind in prompting hydrogen refueling stations. • Battery has an increasingly important role in reducing LCOH. The European Union envisions hydrogen as a key component for future energy systems. The new applications in hydrogen-based mobility vehicles require planning of hydrogen logistics and refueling infrastructure, particularly the ones powered with solar and wind. Considering weather conditions and projected declining infrastructure data, this study analyzes off-grid green hydrogen costs in 320 cities across 32 European countries. The novel contribution is the first pan-European benchmarking model with spatiotemporal detail that maps the evolving landscape of hydrogen refueling stations across Europe while integrating cost trajectories and optimal system configurations. Furthermore, another key innovation of the study is capturing the critical and dynamic role of batteries as both a reliable provider of electricity and a key enabler for cost reduction. Findings indicate that: i) Overall average levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) is approximately 7.5 €/kg in 2024, gradually decreasing to 4.5 €/kg by 2050. The competitive cost target 5 €/kg remains a challenge, achieved by 3.75% of cities in 2024, with an increase to 20.3% (2030), 45% (2040), and 75.3% (2050). ii) Among the studied countries, Malta has the lowest LCOH, and Southern Europe (Malta, Spain, Portugal, Cyprus, Greece) is cost-competitive, whereas Nordic countries (Finland, Norway, Sweden, Iceland) remain high-cost due to weak solar and wind potential. iii) In general, solar plays a more significant role than wind in hydrogen production in Europe, except countries like Denmark and Iceland. iv) Integrating battery storage reduces hydrogen costs up to 18%, particularly as solar PV and battery prices decline after 2030. In this case, share of cities achieving 5 €/kg increases to 26.9% (2030), 78.1% (2040) and 97.8% (2050). Nevertheless, as batteries improve electrolyzer stability, seasonal gaps enlarge, highlighting strong needs of long-term hydrogen storage. The results provide inputs to spatial and temporal optimization of hydrogen infrastructures in transport and logistics planning. Furthermore, the study showcases the opportunities and pathways of renewable hydrogen, supporting informed decision-making and strategic planning for future sustainable transport systems.