High-resolution model for assessing the impact of climate change on the outage risk caused by crown snow load in distribution networks
基于芬兰2017-2018年大停电事件的航拍数据，构建高分辨率模型预测2020-2050年不同气候变化情景下树冠雪荷载导致的配电网停电风险，结果显示RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下风险分别增加34%和68%。
This study presents a novel high-resolution model for estimating the effect of climate change in the outage risk caused by crown snow load in distribution networks. The model is based on an aerial inspection dataset collected during a large-scale outage event which occurred during December 2017-January 2018 in the network area of Kajave Oy, Finland. The proposed model is trained using crown snow load risk observation data as the response variable, and forest characteristics along with modeled long-term crown snow load levels as predictor variables. The trained model was used to estimate the scale and location of outages in the study area for different climate change scenarios for the period 2020–2050. The results showed that the model was capable of predicting outages accurately in a 100 × 40m overhead line section level. The development of the risk level for crown load damage was found to be highly dependent on the climate change pathway, with a 34% increased risk level in the moderate RCP4.5 scenario and up to 68% increase in the more extreme RCP8.5 pathway. The findings of this study provide new insights in the effects of climate change for distribution system operators, helping them adapt their network asset management processes, especially in terms of the overhead line network resiliency strategy and development of vegetation management practices in areas which are prone to crown snow loads accumulation.