信贷、债务通缩与大萧条再探讨

Credit, Debt-Deflation, and the Great Depression Revisited

Journal of Economic Perspectives · 2025
被引 1
人大 A-ABS 4

中文导读

重新审视伯南克1983年关于通缩和名义收入下降导致私人信贷市场紊乱、加剧大萧条深度和持续性的论点,结合近期实证研究,发现借款人和贷款人的财务困境显著抑制了1930年代的信贷流动、支出和经济活动。

Abstract

This article revisits the thesis of Bernanke (1983) that the disruption of private credit markets induced by deflation and falling nominal incomes helps to explain the depth and persistence of the Great Depression. This new look is motivated by economists’ increased attention to the role of financial frictions in economic fluctuations as well as recent empirical research on the Depression and other episodes of disrupted credit. Overall, considerable evidence now exists that the financial distress of both borrowers (farmers, households, and businesses) and lenders (nonbanks as well as banks) significantly depressed credit flows, spending, and economic activity in the 1930s. Indeed, judging by their policy choices and the accompanying rationales, political leaders of the period evidently viewed the normalization of credit flows as a top priority in their fight against the Depression.

信贷市场债务通缩大萧条金融摩擦