Foreign direct investments and CO2 emissions in Asia: A data-driven optimal transport perspective
提出基于最优传输理论的新方法，利用卫星数据分析亚洲各国FDI与CO2排放的联合分布演变，发现两者呈正相关且总体上升，但各国影响存在差异。
The environmental implications of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) remain a topic of debate, with traditional models facing challenges in establishing a clear nexus between FDI and emissions. Against this background, we propose a novel, non-parametric approach based on Optimal Transport theory to examine the evolution of joint and conditional distributions of FDI and carbon emissions ( C O 2 ) across Asia. Leveraging satellite data, our method estimates optimal transport maps that represent the least costly way to transition between FDI and emissions distributions over time. We further construct one-period-ahead distributional forecasts using Wasserstein barycentric interpolation, ensuring minimal divergence from past observations. Our data-driven framework captures complex, nonlinear dependencies without imposing rigid parametric assumptions. The analysis reveals a positive relationship between FDI and C O 2 emissions, with aggregate forecasts indicating a generally increasing trend for both variables. However, distinct patterns emerge across selected countries, suggesting heterogeneous environmental impacts of FDI.