Just another food fad? Expert insights and future scenarios for the plant-based alternative sector
通过德尔菲法和聚类分析，研究植物基替代品行业到2040年的技术、市场、政策等发展情景，识别出四种未来路径，对关注可持续食品系统的学者和从业者有参考价值。
Processed plant-based alternatives (PBAs) offer a potential channel to reduce consumption of resource-intensive animal foods and foster sustainable food systems. Previous research considers many facets of the PBA industry, including consumer acceptance, technology, market, and regulatory factors. However, uncertainty remains regarding the long-term potential for the PBA sector to reduce the environmental impacts of food production and displace meat and dairy products. Closing this research gap, we explore PBA sector developments by 2040 related to technology and raw materials, innovation and business ecosystems, consumer behavior and demographics, and policy and regulations. We employ a real-time Delphi analysis with 17 projections and analyze projections receiving consensus. Then, we conduct a hierarchical cluster analysis to explore sources of expert disagreement and identify four narratives. For Cluster 1, a consolidated, globally integrated PBA sector concentrates on replicating animal-based foods. Cluster 2 focuses on achieving cost parity with animal-based foods through upscaling and policy. Cluster 3 emphasizes health and environmental concerns influencing processing technologies and ingredients. Cluster 4 highlights investment in diverse raw materials and technologies. Our findings underscore the value of engaging experts to gain insights into the potential for emerging technologies and sectors to foster sustainable food systems. • We present a Delphi on the plant-based alternative (PBA) sector with four clusters. • PBA price competitiveness improves with scale; policy is less likely but impactful. • Experts divided on role of processing and ingredient selection in PBAs. • Less processing and fewer ingredients drives environmental gains and health appeal. • However, sensory and functional similarity to animal foods key for substitution.