Synergies and trade-offs in the food-energy-water nexus of rural households: A case study in the North China Plain
构建系统动力学模型模拟华北平原农村家庭2015-2060年食物-能源-水消耗，评估23种政策情景，发现节水行为、清洁取暖改造等优先路径可提升资源效率并支持低碳发展。
The sustainable management of food, energy, and water (FEW) resources is critical for rural development under China's Rural Revitalization Strategy. However, a systematic understanding of the household-level FEW nexus remains limited. This study addressed this gap by developing a system dynamic model to simulate household FEW consumptions for traditional households in the North China Plain from 2015 to 2060. The model was applied to evaluate 23 policy scenarios encompassing technological upgrades, behavioral changes, and spatial utilization of courtyards and rooftops. The results identified two priority policy pathways. The first includes interventions targeting critical nexus nodes to generate co-benefits, such as water-saving behaviors that reduce both water (−10.98 %) and energy use (−1.65 %), and dietary shifts that improve nutrition while saving energy. The second covers high-impact interventions that substantially alter FEW profiles, such as clean heating retrofits—which cut energy use by 49.21 %—and rooftop PV systems that enable electricity self-sufficiency. The integrated spatial use of courtyards and rooftops further enhances household level sustainability across food production, water harvesting, and energy generation. This study underscores the value of localized, multi-benefit interventions in designing equitable and sustainable rural development strategies, ultimately enhancing household resource efficiency and supporting low-carbon development.