Henry George, land speculation, and economic growth and transformation
用简单模型展示土地市场改革引发的投机如何影响长期生产率和经济增长，并分析政府政策如何缓解其负面效应，发现放松金融管制和低利率可能有害增长。
Abstract There has long been a concern that speculation on land (or other non-produced assets) may adversely affect economic performance by diverting scarce savings away from productive investment. The central objective of this paper is to show in the simplest possible model (i) how land speculation resulting from land market reform affects long-term productivity and economic growth rates, and (ii) how government policies and institutional arrangements can mitigate the adverse effects of land speculation and increase growth and overall welfare. We analyse the effects of land taxation in a way that goes beyond the suggestion by Henry George (1879) who argued that the fairest and most efficient tax was a tax on land. Our findings differ from the widely accepted views that looser financial and monetary policies should be good for growth. Instead we argue that, without financial regulations that curb the adverse effects of land speculation, such policies can end up encouraging land speculation financed by borrowing, rather than stimulating productive investment. We conclude that financial liberalization and lower interest rates can be harmful to the long-term economic growth and welfare.